E-books and e-publishing - Samuel Vaknin (best historical fiction books of all time .TXT) 📗
- Author: Samuel Vaknin
- Performer: -
Book online «E-books and e-publishing - Samuel Vaknin (best historical fiction books of all time .TXT) 📗». Author Samuel Vaknin
major market). Pyramid projects that by 2006, 94 percent of
Russia’s cellular phone market will be in the hands of the
five leading providers (compared to 85 percent at the end of
2001). Mobile penetration will increase (to c. 10 percent) and
prepaid customers will account for the vast majority of users.
Revenues from cellular networks exceed revenues from fixed
line networks in certain markets. SMS is booming. Second and
third mobile operator licenses are tendered by all cash
strapped governments in the region (though a Polish attempt to
sell an UMTS license ended in a fiasco). Poland introduced a
wireless local loop service. Macedonia just handed a second
mobile operator license to the Greek OTE.
“By the end of 2005, the total number of mobile subscribers in
CEE will exceed 50 million (compared to 30 million by end-2001) and mobile Internet accounts will constitute
approximately 21 percent of total mobile accounts”, projects
Pyramid. The Czech Republic will have 78 mobile users per 100
population - and Hungary 66. In a second tier of countries -
the likes of Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, and Russia - a mobile
phone will remain a luxury and a status symbol.
Hitherto domestic operators - from the Greek OTE to the
Russian MTS - are becoming regional. Multinationals, such as
the British Vodafone and the French Orange - have entered the
regional fray. Some CEE markets are as saturated (and
customers as savvy and demanding) as many advanced Western
European ones. A host of value added services (VAS) is thrust
upon the - sometimes reluctant - users, leading naturally to
WAP (recently introduced throughout much of CEE), 2.5G, and 3G
(wi-fi or wireless Internet) services.
Moreover, Pyramid sees an intriguing opportunity in VoIP
(Voice over IP) telephony. It says:
“As the incumbents in the CEE markets continue to dominate
long-distance circuit-switched telephony, VoIP offers a unique
opportunity for new operators to gain a foothold in this
traditional monopolistic stronghold.”
Internet Telephony Service Providers (ITSP’s) have sprung up
all over the region (an Israeli firm is now planning to offer
VoIP services in Macedonia, Kosovo, and Albania). Even
incumbents have been offering VoIP - as early as 1998 in the
Czech Republic. In his keynote address to The Economist CEE
Telecommunications Conference, in December 2001, Ofer Gneezy,
President and CEO of iBasis (a global ITSP), cited industry
analysts projecting VoIP average annual growth rates in CEE of
80 percent through 2006.
This, coupled with a growing number of Internet users and
access providers (spurred on by telecoms liberalization and
growing incomes), may revolutionize the landscape in the next
5-10 years. Pyramid expects annual Internet adoption growth
rates of 40 percent through 2005 (that’s 30,000 new users a
day!). Internet related revenues will reach $10 billion by
2005 (five times today’s $1.8 billion - but only one seventh
the Internet market in Western Europe).
Internet penetration in Central Europe will reach 15 percent
in 2005 (from 4 percent today and 3 percent in Russia) - and
40 percent in Western Europe (compared to 18 percent today).
Mobile Internet accounts will constitute one third of the
total in CEE - c. 20 million users. Harald Gruber of the
European Investment Bank is even more optimistic, saying
(“Competition and Innovation: The Diffusion of
Telecommunications in CEE”, March 2000): “About 20 percent of
the population will adopt mobile telecommunications”.
II. The Future
Leapfrogging is not a linear function of the ubiquity of
hardware and software. Though not a homogeneous lot, some
lessons common to all countries in transition are already
evident.
Technology is a social phenomenon with social implications. It
fosters entrepreneurship and social mobility. By allowing the
countries in transition to skip massive investments in
outdated technologies - the cellular phone, the Internet,
cable TV, and the satellite came to be perceived as shortcuts
to prosperity, the generators of the dual ethoses of “rags to
riches”, and “creative destruction” (dizzying, constant, and
disruptive innovation). They are the future, a youthful
promise, and a landscape of opportunities.
Software developers in CEE countries tried to establish local
versions of “Silicon Valley”, or the flourishing software
industry in India. Russian entrepreneurs developed anti virus
software, Yugoslavs offered web design services, electronic
media flourished in the Czech Republic and so on. But, as hard
reality set in, most of these talents left for Western Europe,
the USA, Canada, and Australia - where technology firms
snatched them eagerly. Central and Eastern Europe is a major
net exporter of engineers, programmers, systems analysts, Web
designers, and concepts analysts.
Internet penetration in these countries - even in the most
wired - is still very low by European standards, let alone
American ones. The trauma of communism left them with decrepit
and rarefied infrastructure, a prohibitive, extortionist, and
skewed cost structure, computer illiteracy, inefficient
competition, insufficient investment capital, and entrenched
luddism (e.g., computer phobia). Foreign operators often
exacerbate the situation. ArmenTel, the Greek owned monopoly
in Armenia, keeps Internet access costs prohibitively high,
ignoring court actions by the government and loud complaints
by disgruntled customers.
The Center for Democracy and Technology (in its report
“Bridging the Digital Divide: Internet Access in Central and
Eastern Europe”) says that, as contrasted with India (or
Malaysia), the countries of the CEE did not invest in
computerizing their schools, public libraries, and higher
education institutions, or in subsidizing private computer-training colleges.
More crucially and less reversibly, decades of central (mis-
)planning rendered the societies of Central and Eastern Europe
inert and dependent, apart from their traditional
conservatism. Many - especially older mid-and high-level
managers and engineers - feel threatened by technology.
Technology makes people redundant.
To a few open minded (i.e., foreign owned) firms, computer
networking stands for decentralized channels of distribution
and marketing as well as potential global penetration. But
even there, only a minuscule number of businesses took
advantage of e-commerce (though the countries of Central
Europe and the Baltic may be the global pioneers of m-commerce
due to their wireless networks).
E-commerce is leapfrogging’s litmus test because it represents
the culmination and confluence of hardware, software, and
process engineering. To have e-commerce, a country needs rich
computer infrastructure, a functioning telecommunications
network, and cheap access to the Internet. Its citizens need
to be reasonably computer literate, possess both a consumerist
mentality (e.g., inability to postpone gratification), and a
modicum of trust between the players in the economy - and hold
credit cards.
Alas, the countries in transition lack all of the above to
varying degrees. The Economist Intelligence Unit ranked Russia
42nd (out of 60 countries) in its year 2000 “e-readiness
survey”. Other CEE countries fared little better.
Penetration and coverage rates (the number of computers and
phone lines per household), network reliability, and the
absolute number of Internet users - are all dismally low.
Access fees are prohibitively high. Budding Internet
enterprises in the countries in transition are happy
exceptions that prove the depressing rule. They usually
respond to erratic local demand. Few have expanded
internationally. Even fewer engage in research and
development.
Technology was supposed to be the great equalizer (with the
rich, developed countries). It did not deliver on this
promise. Unable to catch up with Western affluence and
prosperity, the denizens of CEE are frustrated. They feel
inferior, neglected, looked down upon, dictated to, and, in
general, put down. New, ever-cheaper, technologies, thought
the locals, would surely restore the rightful balance between
impoverished East and filthy rich West. But the Internet - and
even technologies such as cellular telephony - belong to those
who can effectively deploy them (i.e., consumers in developed,
infrastructure-rich, countries).
The news get worse.
The Internet is gradually permeated by commercial interests
and going wireless. This convergence of content and business
interests - means less access to the underprivileged. The
digital divide is growing by the day. New technologies have
done little to bridge this gap - on the contrary: they
enhanced the productivity and economic growth (this is known
as “The New Economy”) of rich countries (mainly the United
States) and left the have-nots in the dust.
The countries in transition also lack the proper legislative
and law enforcement infrastructure (backed by the right
cultural background). Property rights, contracts, intellectual
property - are all new, often indigestible, concepts, emblems
of Western hegemony and monopolistic practices. Widespread
copyright violation, software piracy, and hacking are both
status symbols and political declarations of sorts.
Admittedly, the dissemination of illicit intellectual products
may have served to level the playing field. But now it is
hindering entrepreneurship and holding back development.
After Asia, the countries in transition are the second largest
centre of piracy. Software, films, even books - are copied and
distributed quite freely and openly. There are street vendors
who deal in the counterfeit products - but most of it is sold
through stores and OEMs. This despite massive efforts (e.g.,
in Russia, Bulgaria, Ukraine, and, lately, in Macedonia) by
software developers, licensed film libraries, and distributors
- to fight these phenomena.
Intellectual property may go the way the pharmaceutical
industry has. Content owners and distributors may team up with
sponsors (multilateral institutions, private charities and
donors). The latter will subsidize intellectual property and,
thus, make it affordable to the denizens of poor countries.
This is already happening in scholarly publishing.
This is very promising. But it far from leapfrogging
development. In hindsight, leapfrogging may have been nothing
but another of those intellectual fads whose time has gone
before it ever came.
The Selfish Net - The Semantic Web
By: Sam Vaknin
A decade after the invention of the World Wide Web, Tim
Berners-Lee is promoting the “Semantic Web”. The Internet
hitherto is a repository of digital content. It has a
rudimentary inventory system and very crude data location
services. As a sad result, most of the content is invisible
and inaccessible. Moreover, the Internet manipulates strings
of symbols, not logical or semantic propositions. In other
words, the Net compares values but does not know the meaning
of the values it thus manipulates. It is unable to interpret
strings, to infer new facts, to deduce, induce, derive, or
otherwise comprehend what it is doing. In short, it does not
understand language. Run an ambiguous term by any search
engine and these shortcomings become painfully evident. This
lack of understanding of the semantic foundations of its raw
material (data, information) prevent applications and
databases from sharing resources and feeding each other. The
Internet is discrete, not continuous. It resembles an
archipelago, with users hopping from island to island in a
frantic search for relevancy.
Even visionaries like Berners-Lee do not contemplate an
“intelligent Web”. They are simply proposing to let users,
content creators, and web developers assign descriptive metatags (“name of hotel”) to fields, or to strings of symbols
(“Hilton”). These metatags (arranged in semantic and
relational “ontologies” - lists of metatags, their meanings
and how they relate to each other) will be read by various
applications and allow them to process the associated strings
of symbols correctly (place the word “Hilton” in your address
book under “hotels”). This will make information retrieval
more efficient and reliable and the information retrieved is
bound to be more relevant and amenable to higher level
processing (statistics, the development of heuristic rules,
etc.). The shift is from HTML (whose tags are concerned with
visual appearances and content indexing) to languages such as
the DARPA Agent Markup Language, OIL (Ontology Inference Layer
or Ontology Interchange Language), or even XML (whose tags are
concerned with content taxonomy, document structure, and
semantics). This would bring the Internet closer to the
classic library card catalogue.
Even in its current, pre-semantic, hyperlink-dependent, phase,
the Internet brings to mind Richard Dawkins’ seminal work “The
Selfish Gene” (OUP, 1976). This would be doubly true for the
Semantic Web.
Dawkins suggested to generalize the principle of natural
selection to a law of the survival of the stable. “A stable
thing is a collection of atoms which is permanent enough or
common enough
Comments (0)