Hyper Lynx (The Lynx Series Book 6) by Fiona Quinn (ebook reader for pc and android TXT) 📗

The officers all leaned forward.

“If you’ll zoom back out on both images, please.” I waited. “Subject on the left has a white scar on his left index finger. It looks like it was from a burn. He also has that tear in his cuticle.” I caught Cho’s eye. “Can you zoom in on their hands?”

After he had the images adjusted on the screen, the officers in the room all shook their heads. “Son of a gun. Identical twins.”

“Hence when you picked up the cigarette butts, you got the same DNA sequence,” I said. “Though there are some instances when small variances in DNA show up in identical twins or triplets, this usually happens when the zygote splits into two very early. And it’s fairly rare. That’s why some identical twins develop hereditary diseases that their sibling does not. How they found each other and how they started this makes little difference. But you are dealing with identical twins unless, of course, they were triplets. But I don’t think that matters. All of the surveillance photos are of these two. They were always meticulous about not leaving any fingerprints, I noticed. They were not as careful about the DNA, one because it’s tough to move about without shedding DNA, but also, when they were involved in their crimes, they always made sure the other had a solid alibi. Yeah, I’m convinced that they smoked and left the cigarette butts to purposefully confuse you. And it’s worked for what…years?”

“Years,” DiSarro confirmed.

“That doesn’t explain how they get their crimes accomplished,” Casper said.

“Well, the rest isn’t that difficult. First, the conspirators used these two guys as goats, and the rest is based on probability.”

“We’re listening.” Casper’s voice took on the tenor that I had experienced so many times at work. They wanted to know the answer, yet…they knew when they heard it, they’d be embarrassed.

Oh, well.

Chapter Fifteen

“When I was growing up, my mother was bedridden,” I told the three CIA guys. “Some days when her head hurt her too much to entertain me, Mom would put on the game show with Monty Hall. I loved that show because of the clever costumes that people created. Are you all familiar with what show I’m talking about?”

I looked around as the men nodded.

“One of my favorite games was the three doors game. Basically, Monty Hall picked someone from the audience. When the curtain lifted, there were three doors. Behind one of the doors was a brand new car. Behind the other two doors, there were goats. At the time, I wanted very much to go play that game because I wanted a goat. And I had no need for a car.”

The men’s lips curled in. They were biding their time to hear something of significance.

Still, if you get to the reveal too soon, there’s no razzmatazz. I hoped they’d grow to appreciate my metaphor.

“Now the person had a one in three chance of picking the car, and it’s important to note, Monty Hall knew exactly where the car was hidden—the show didn’t want the player to win. Let’s say the player picked door number one. Monty would say, ‘Okay, you have door number one. Let’s see what’s behind door number two.’ Again, Monty knew good and well that there was no car behind door number two. He knew it would be a goat. The door opens. Goat says, ‘mah.’ Player knows that they started with a one in three chance to win, and now that the goat is revealed, they think they have a fifty-fifty shot at winning the car. What does Monty do?” I looked around for one of the officers to throw in an answer.

“He asks if they’d like to change their mind,” Cho said.

“Exactly, and they almost always stick to their original pick. Well, almost everyone does. It’s for psychological reasons that they stay with their original choice.”

“But they shouldn’t?” DiSarro asked.

“Statistically, no. Let me start with the psychology that’s got your field officers stuck, then I’ll explain the math. And this isn’t just a chance to talk statistics. It’s the strategy that these people of interest must have known in advance. They wanted to go on about their espionage, but they needed their chances of being caught to be statistically minimal. What that means is they wanted you to focus on the goats and lose the car. The goats in this metaphor are not committing acts of espionage. The car is. The goats are conspiring to keep you from noticing the car.”

The men shook their heads at me.

“Step by step then.”

Striker ducked his head to hide his grin.

“One, the psychology. Cognitive scientists have studied this phenomenon, and my mentor taught this to me because it’s such a profoundly held human reaction, and in my line of work as Iniquus puzzler, I can’t fall into the trap. When someone has made a decision, they stick with it. Here it is, ready?”

Head nods. Hand rubs. Worried faces. I could tell that it was dawning on these three that they were about to be grouped with the people who made bad choices based on applied psychology. And that would make them feel like fools, just as Striker had predicted.

Welp, here I go.

“Let me give this example a name. Joe Shmo. So Joe Schmo doesn’t like to feel bad about himself. If Joe makes some decision and loses, he feels awful. But if Joe were to change his mind and then lose, he feels much worse. Let me repeat that. If Joe sticks with the things that cause him to fail, that’s bad. If he had picked the right thing, to begin with, and switched to the wrong thing, worse.” I gave them a nod. “Put this information into the Monty Hall scenario. Joe picks door number one. The goat was behind door number two.